AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF CHRISTMAS TREES Executive Summary Christmas trees are produced in all 50 states, but the bulk of production is located in the northern half of the country. The top producing states include Oregon, Michigan, North Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin, California, and Pennsylvania. U.S. producers have harvested 34 to 36 million live Christmas trees annually since 1988, up from 29 million during 1977-79. The value of the 1994 crop is estimated at $360-$540 million. Pine, fir, and spruce trees are the three major Christmas tree species. The top selling trees are balsam fir, Douglas fir, Fraser fir, noble fir, Scotch pine, Virginia pine, and white pine. In recent years, fir trees have been growing in popularity because they are a short-needle species that retain their needles and hold their green color for a longer time following cutting than do other types. Although the Census of Agriculture does not report any Christmas tree statistics, industry estimates suggest that as many as 1 million acres may be planted to trees and that 100,000 people are employed either full or part-time in producing Christmas trees. Many Christmas tree producers grow trees on a part-time basis as a supplement to other types of farm-related enterprises or non- farm income. Although different species of Christmas trees are native to specific regions of the United States, cultivation practices and the breeding of new varieties have enabled species to be grown beyond their native habitats. Pine trees are noted for surviving on poor soil, often where other agricultural crops would not do well. Spruces and fir are more specific as to soil and climate requirements, with the fir varieties being the most demanding. Christmas trees are usually planted for the exclusive purpose of being harvested for Christmas trees or, to a limited extent, for nursery stock. Wild trees are not cultivated for Christmas trees and are rarely sold as Christmas trees in today's market. Wild trees are estimated to make up no more than 1 to 2 percent of Christmas tree sales. Seedlings are started from seed in a nursery seedbed. Seedlings may be transplanted to nursery field beds at two years of age to allow more room for both shoot and root development. In the South, seedlings may be set into the field right from the seedbed. Even in the North, pines may be transplanted directly to the field from the seedbed. On average, about 2,000 to 2,100 trees are planted per acre. Spacing within and between rows, however, varies by species, the size to which the tree will be grown, and the equipment to be used. The within-row spacing at planting averages 4 feet to 6 feet. After the initial loss of trees, an average of 1,000 to 1,500 trees per acre will remain for harvest as Christmas trees. In more northern regions, about 750 trees per acre remain. Most varieties require shearing to obtain the desired density (number of lateral branches) and taper (shape). The ideal tree is thick (has many branches with few open spaces) and has a taper of about 66 percent. Pine trees require more shearing to achieve the desired shape and compactness than do the other species. A Christmas tree is considered mature and ready for harvest when it reaches 6 to 7 feet, the most popular height desired by consumers. It usually takes 5-12 years from planting until trees reach the 6-7 foot height. The actual number of years depends on geographic location, species, size at harvest, age of seedlings when planted in the field, soil fertility, cultural practices, and other variables. The major production perils affecting Christmas trees include drought, excessive rain, excessive wind, hail, and fire. Some of the perils may kill the tree, but more typically, the tree's appearance is altered to the extent it is no longer saleable as a Christmas tree. For several reasons, many of the individuals contacted for this study implied that crop insurance would be mostly an issue for mature Christmas trees. First, costs during the early stages of production are minimal compared with the costs of producing the adult tree. Third, younger trees can sometimes outgrow damage, such as needle or branch loss, by the time the tree is ready to be marketed. Our assessment is that there is likely to be a substantial amount of interest in purchasing insurance, particularly among the larger producers in the Pacific Northwest and northern states. Smaller, part-time producers may be less interested. However, moral hazard and adverse selection are potential problems; these insurance issues, along with others, are discussed in the text. Two contacts mentioned that insurance had been offered about 20 years ago by a private company. It covered natural disasters such as fire, hail, and winds. However, the insurance was too costly for most producers and the company felt it was too risky. In recent years, the National Christmas Tree Association (NCTA) Insurance Representative has written 3 policies on growing trees. These policies cover fire, lightening, wind, and hail damage, and were required before growers could obtain financing from lenders.